Could Indiana be due for a major political upheaval in 2008? A new poll confirms that incumbent Republican Gov. “My Man” Mitch Daniels is standing on shaky ground.
Selzer & Co. for the Indianapolis Star-WTHR TV (Nov. 13-16, likely votes):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 44%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43%
Undecided: 13%Jim Schellinger (D): 44%
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 40%
Undecided: 16%
(MoE: ±4.6%)
So we’ve got Daniels, an incumbent Governor, well under 50% against someone who has been out of the political spotlight for quite some time (JLT) and someone who’s never held an elected office before (Schellinger, an Indianapolis architect).
Want some gravy for those trimmings? Mitch’s approve/disapprove rating stands at a rough 40%/50% and 57% think that the state is headed in the wrong direction.
Daniels won’t be easy to beat by any means, but these and other poll results showing that more Hoosiers plan to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate than they do for the Republican nominee are leaving many wondering if blue dreams could come true next year.
(H/T: Blue Indiana)
it is fascinating to see that the GOP is struggling almost everywhere.
In the deep south, where the GOP should be wiping up the floor with HRC, she is breathing down their necks.
In KY, she is barely ahead, where she should be about 15 points behind. No polls yet in WV, but I will make a big wager that when polls from WV start to come in, the story will be similar.
The race is getting much too close for the GOP in SC, in TN, in MO, in NV….and and and and.
Facit: the more the GOP bastions start to shake, the more money and energy it must divert in order to protect the base states.
And should President Bush go ahead with his planned attack on Iran, for good or for bad (and personally, I would support him on this one, too bad his administration messed up so terribly in Iraq), then expect the anti-war sentiment to send a number of states over to the DEMS in 2008. Should he attack, I suspect he will do it one week before the democratic national convention. 🙂
But make no doubts about it: it will still be a close race that will probably break wide open just 10 days before the election, either for the GOP or for the DEMS. Hard to say at this point, but the statistics and the wind are still at the DEMS backs…
By all rights, Daniels should be toast in 2008, considering it was unhappiness with Daniels (esp. over the turnpike privitization mess) that caused Indiana voters to vent their 2006 frustrations against Chocola, Hostettler, and Sodrel in lieu of Mitch being on the ballot. Daniels’ connections to Bush also can’t be helping him right now.
My main concern is Indianapolis. We just lost the mayor’s race and Carson is compromising her House race by refusing to resign in spite of her problems. Could Carson’s unpopularity affect turnout in one of the state’s few reliably Democratic areas? If so, Daniels (and the GOP presidential nominee) could possibly squeak by in spite of themselves.
According to the report, Schellinger leads Daniels 44/40, with 43% for Daniels there could not be 16% undecideds. Not that this would mean very much…
Those numbers do look encouraging.
I moved away two and a half years ago, so my on-the-ground sources in Indiana are wearing thin. I thought earlier in his term Daniels had earned so much unpopularity in both the Reg and in the Southeast corner of the state, over highway (toll road) plans and the plan to poison Lake Michigan with chemical run-off that he would be easy pickings in 2008.
But Republican acquaintances are telling me that voters give the governor, and not the state legislature, credit for a property tax restructuring that the voters like.
I don’t know anything about this, and would love to hear from observers in-state?